Modeling of the Dynamics of Depletion of Mineral Reserves with Different Production Costs
https://doi.org/10.56304/S2304487X2103010X
Abstract
It is an urgent task for the extractive industries to estimate the time of depletion of mineral reserves and the rate of their production. The difference in mining conditions and methods for extracting minerals leads to a significant spread in their cost and, consequently, different production intensities depending on the demand price, production cost, and other market characteristics. A model is proposed in the form of a non-linear differential equation of the second-order to predict the dynamics of the depletion of non-renewable minerals (uranium, iron, nickel, copper, and others), considering different production costs in different fields. The initial (known) parameters of the model are the explored residual volume of the fossil resource, the current market price of this fossil recoverable by traditional methods, the annual volume of resource extraction, and the production cost in the initial forecasting period. It presents the results of numerical modeling of the production of a certain conditional resource for the model function of the distribution of cost, demand prices for the resource, and the intensity of production from the expected income of mining companies, taking into account the influence of historical prices. It is shown that the intensity of production and the rate of depletion of the field significantly depends on the surges in the cost and the nature of the influence of historical prices.
About the Authors
N. S. Rostovsky
National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
115409
Moscow
N. G. Litvinova
National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
115409
Moscow
References
1. Kontorovich A. E., Epov M. I., Eder L. V. Dolgosrochnye i srednesrochnye faktory i stsenarii razvitiya global’noi energeticheskoi sistemy v XXI veke. [Long-term and medium-term factors and scenarios for the development of the global energy system in the CAHI century]. Geologiya i geofizika, 2014. vol. 55. no 5–6. pp. 689–700. (in Russian)
2. Novikova O. V., Popova M. N. Analiz sovremennykh predstavlenii o prodolzhitel’nosti “neftyanoi ery” i prognoz neftedobychi v Rossii v pervoi polovine XXI veka. [Analysis of modern ideas about the duration of the “oil era” and forecast of oil production in Russia in the first half of the XXI century]. Elektronnyi nauchnyi zhurnal “Georesursy. Geoenergetika. Geopolitika”, 2010, V. 2 (2). pp. 12. (in Russian)
3. Kharitonov V. V., Kabashev K. V., Malikov R. R. Dolgosrochnye trendy ischerpaniya traditsionnykh energeticheskikh resursov i perspektivy yadernoi energetiki.[Long-term trends in the depletion of traditional energy resources and the prospects for nuclear power]. Moscow, NIYaU MIFI Publ, 2016. 96 p.
4. Hubbert M. King. Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels. American Petroleum Institute. Publication No. 95. Shell Development Company. June, 1956. pp. 1–40.
5. Hubbert M. King. Energy Resources. A Report to the Committee on Natural Resources; National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council: Washington, DC, USA, 1962. pp. 1–141.
6. Kharitonov V. V., Ul’yanin Yu. A., Sliva D. E. Analiticheskoe modelirovanie dinamiki ischerpaniya nevozobnovlyaemykh traditsionnykh energeticheskikh resursov. [Analytical modeling of the dynamics of the depletion of non-renewable traditional energy resources]. Vestnik NIYaU MIFI, 2019. no 4. pp. 370–379. (in Russian)
7. Ivanov V. V., Kryanev A. V., Sliva D. E., Ul’yanin Yu. A., Kharitonov V. V. Matematicheskoe modelirovanie protsessa ischerpaniya dobyvaemykh resursov na primere prirodnogo urana. [Mathematical modeling of the process of depletion of extracted resources by the example of natural uranium]. Pis’ma v EChAE, 2020, vol. 17. no. 2 (227), pp. 226–230. (in Russian)
Review
For citations:
Rostovsky N.S., Litvinova N.G. Modeling of the Dynamics of Depletion of Mineral Reserves with Different Production Costs. Vestnik natsional'nogo issledovatel'skogo yadernogo universiteta "MIFI". 2021;10(3):265-270. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.56304/S2304487X2103010X
Views:
155
Email this article 