INFLUENCE OF SOCIAL CONTACTS ON FORMATION OF ENDEMIC EQUILIBRIUM IN SEIS MODEL
https://doi.org/10.26583/vestnik.2025.3.5
EDN: OQVEDU
Abstract
In the framework of mean-field approximation, the influence of social contacts on the spread of an epidemic in a population of constant size is discussed. This aspect, which seems to be not fully explored yet, is getting increasing attention in mathematical epidemiology. The key point of the proposed model is that it highlights two-infection transfer mechanisms depending on the physical nature of the contact between people. We separate the transfer mechanism related directly to the movement of people (the so-called transport processes) from the one occurring at zero relative speed of persons (the so-called social contacts). Under the framework of the proposed physical chemical analogy, this approach allows us uniformly to come to the description of the rate constants of infection transmission of different nature. The resulting transmission rate constants are used to modify the SEIS model to examine the influence of social activity on the formation of endemic equilibrium in the population under consideration. The frequency of social contacts is estimated with the Dunbar approach and direct statistical calculation based on the binomial distribution. Both methods provide close values, the ones are used to determine the permissible range of values for the infection transmission rate constant, employed to establish endemic equilibrium. The necessary conditions for the existence of this equilibrium, depending on both social and medical-biological factors, are also obtained.
Supporting agencies: The work was carried out with the financial support of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (agreement No. 075-00270-24-00).
About the Authors
A. R. Karimov
National Research Nuclear University MEPhI;
Joint Institute of High Temperatures, Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
M. A. Solomatin
National Research Nuclear University MEPhI
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Karimov A.R., Solomatin M.A. INFLUENCE OF SOCIAL CONTACTS ON FORMATION OF ENDEMIC EQUILIBRIUM IN SEIS MODEL. Vestnik natsional'nogo issledovatel'skogo yadernogo universiteta "MIFI". 2025;14(3):225-239. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26583/vestnik.2025.3.5. EDN: OQVEDU
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