Prediction of the Levelized Cost of Electricity for Nuclear Power Plants with Different Nuclear Reactors

Abstract

   The levelized cost of electricity for nuclear power plants with different types of nuclear reactors has been predicted taking into account the uncertainty in the cost data on the construction and operation of reactor facilities, as well as the uncertainty in the cost data on fuel cycle products and services. Three types of thermal reactors operating in the once-through fuel cycle are considered (two options of spent fuel management are analyzed including the long-term storage of spent fuel at the away-from-reactor storage facility and final geological disposal of spent fuel), as well as four types of fast reactors operating in a closed uranium–plutonium fuel cycle. The estimation of probable LCOE values for various thermal and fast reactor technologies shows that the spread in possible LCOE values for different types of fast reactors turns out to be comparable and largely overlaps with the spread in LCOE values for thermal reactors. This suggests that, based on the LCOE estimations, taking into account the uncertainty in their values caused by the spreads in fuel cycle unit service cost and costs for the construction, operation and maintenance of nuclear power plants, it is impossible to make an unequivocal conclusion about the greatest attraction of any fast reactor concept, relying only on the LCOE analysis, and it is also incorrect to make statements about the lower economic performance of fast reactors as compared to thermal reactors: the corresponding statements should be considered solely as probabilistic ones.