Parameters of the SIR Model for the First and Second Waves of COVID-19 in Moscow
https://doi.org/10.1134/S2304487X20060048
Abstract
The susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) model, which is a compartmental mathematical model of epidemic outbreak, is considered in the form of the recently proposed one-parameter model. For the particular case of Moscow, the parameters of the model are found that describe the first and second waves of the COVID-19 epidemic. We have analyzed the parameter δ = β/(αN) that determines the behavior of the reduced SIR model dimensionless compartment variables and which is equal to the peak proportion of the infected persons. The results show that both waves can be fitted with the SIR model with satisfactory accuracy. The parameter δ, as well as the infected-to-removed transition rate β, can be asserted equal for the two waves. On the contrary, the susceptible-to-infected transition rate α and the size N of the population potentially exposed to the infection proved to have changed in the second peak compared to the first one. Thus, the parameter δ can be used as an unambiguous and robust characteristic of the dynamics of the outbreak in a particular region.
Supporting agencies: organizations The work in terms of the SIR analytical solution supports the natural efficiency of NRNU MEPhI (project no. 02.a03.21.005), in terms of computational calculations based on the calculated parameters, it was supported by the RFBR grant no. data on the reaction of society to quarantine measures. The work was carried out using the facilities of the Center for Collective Use "Complex for Modeling and Data Processing and Mega-Class Research Facilities" of the National Research Center "Kurchatov Institute", http://ckp.nrcki.ru/
About the Authors
N. A. Kudryashov
National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
115409
Moscow
R. B. Rybka
National Research Center Kurchatov Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
123182
Moscow
A. G. Sboev
National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute); National Research Center Kurchatov Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
115409
123182
Moscow
A. V. Serenko
National Research Center Kurchatov Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
123182
Moscow
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Review
For citations:
Kudryashov N.A., Rybka R.B., Sboev A.G., Serenko A.V. Parameters of the SIR Model for the First and Second Waves of COVID-19 in Moscow. Vestnik natsional'nogo issledovatel'skogo yadernogo universiteta "MIFI". 2020;9(6):561-566. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.1134/S2304487X20060048
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